Tuesday, July 8th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending the upward trend in yields. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 79 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (4.42%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
10/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.42%
79
Dow
44,327
2
NASDAQ
20,415
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Negative
There is no relevant economic data coming today or tomorrow. In fact, there is not much driving bond trading this week. Tariff headlines had much more of an impact on stocks yesterday than bonds did. We can expect some pressure in bonds until at least tomorrow’s auction or until the benchmark 10-year Note yield gets close to 4.5%. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this means the odds of seeing a noticeable improvement in rates this week are fairly minimal.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow afternoon has two events scheduled that may have a moderate impact on rates since there is very little to drive bond trading this week. First will be the 1:00 PM ET results announcement for the 10-year Treasury Note auction that is taking place tomorrow. These types of sales typically don't directly impact mortgage rates but can affect the broader bond market if investor demand was stronger or noticeably weaker than other recent sales. If the benchmarks indicate a strong interest in the securities, we could see bonds and mortgage pricing improve tomorrow afternoon. On the other hand, a lackluster demand may cause an upward revision to rates.
Medium
Unknown
Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the June 17-18th FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET. These give us some insight into each FOMC member’s opinions and votes to leave key rates unchanged last month. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them, but I don't believe they will reveal a significant surprise that we did not get from the post-meeting statement, revised economic projections and press conference after the meeting adjourned. Bond traders are looking for feelings about inflation and thoughts about the Fed's next monetary policy move, which some analysts expected to come at this month’s FOMC meeting before Friday’s Employment report changed that.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.