Monday, July 14th
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly as traders await this week’s major economic releases. Stocks are starting the week with minor losses of 41 points in the Dow and 31 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.41%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Friday’s early pricing.
1/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.41%
41
Dow
44,329
31
NASDAQ
20,554
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Positive
Today is the only day of the week that doesn’t have something scheduled that we need to be concerned about. It appears that this weekend’s news that President Trump is imposing 30% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and the European Union while adding 35% on Canadian goods are taking a backseat to the upcoming data. The general theory is that higher tariffs will push the costs of goods higher, fueling an increase in inflation. That will also cause the Fed to cut key short-term interest rates later than sooner. But traders are waiting to see what tomorrow’s report shows before reacting to this weekend’s news.
High
Unknown
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will kick-off this week’s heavy economic calendar at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This highly important index tracks inflation at the consumer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% rise in both the overall and core data readings. The core reading is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, revealing a more reliable inflation measurement. They are both predicted to move higher on an annual basis. If we see weaker than predicted results, the bond market should react favorably and mortgage rates will likely move lower. However, stronger than expected inflation readings could send mortgage rates noticeably higher tomorrow.
High
Unknown
The rest of the week has six more monthly reports scheduled in addition to a large number of Fed-speaking engagements and the start of corporate earnings season. Two of the remaining economic releases are considered to be highly influential and can also cause a big move in rates. Furthermore, we will be watching for tariff-related headlines that may also draw a reaction in the markets.
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Unknown
Overall, tomorrow is the most important day for rates this week due to the influence consumer inflation data carries. Wednesday and Thursday also have reports scheduled that will draw plenty of attention, meaning larger changes in rates are possible those days also. We should see an active week for rates, so it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.